The trade deadline approaches

Every year, the trade deadline comes in with a lot of fanfare, fans talk about which teams are buying, which are selling, and who's going to be in a new uniform come August.  And then the deadline passes, and we come to find out that the best player who was traded was Carlos Lee.

Apparently, most sportswriters have caught onto this, and the trade deadline isn't coming with near the usual amount of hype.  There are two reasons for the decline in the trade deadline.  First, increased revenue sharing means that even the smaller-market teams can find ways to lock up their best players.  The Twins might have still been willing to let Shannon Stewart get away, but there's no way they're going to let Johan Santana get away.

Second, increased revenue sharing (along with a number of other factors) has led to increased parity, meaning that fewer teams are willing to give up on the season on July 31.  Right now, exactly half of the 30 teams in MLB are within five games of either the division lead or a wild card spot, including the Yankees, who are never, ever going to consider themselves "sellers" at the trade deadline.

What's more, deadline deals always seem to hit some sort of hangup.  Most of the teams who are selling are looking for prospects.  Of course, many of the teams who are buying got to where they are by trading away prospects for established players and signing big-name free agents.

So should the Rockies be buying or selling?  There are points to be made on either side.  While they're only 4.5 games out in the West -- and 3.5 out in the Wild Card -- those aren't going to be easy gaps to make up.  They're behind three teams in the division and five in the wild card, meaning they'll either have to play excellent ball down the stretch or hope for several teams to fall apart.  The Dodgers and Padres, in particular, don't look like the kind of teams that are about to start collapsing.  What's more, the Rockies don't really have that much to gain by buying.  They could add a bullpen arm, sure, but after seeing what the Padres got back in return for Scott Linebrink from the Brewers, we can be pretty sure that a bullpen arm won't come cheap.  Aside from catcher, where our best bet, really, is to sit back and hope Chris Iannetta can turn things around, there aren't any gaping holes in the offense.  With Aaron Cook starting to pitch more like an ace and Ubaldo Jimenez being a decent stopgap, there's nothing to be gained by trading for a starting pitcher, either.

On the other hand, there's not much to be gained by selling.  The obvious reason to sell would be to get rid of Todd Helton's contract, but even then, the Rockies would still be eating a good chunk of Helton's salary.  While Helton isn't the player he once was, neither has he declined to the point that the Rockies should be paying him not to play for them (as they once did with Mike Hampton.)  The presence of Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith (currently lighting things up at AAA) means the Rockies could trade a corner outfielder for somebody who needs a bat, but what kind of message would it send for us to trade Matt Holliday when we could be contending in a year or two?  (Trading Brad Hawpe, on the other hand, might not send the same message and could net us a couple of nice prospects.)  Basically, the Rockies shouldn't be selling because it would send an awful, awful message to the fan base if we're trading away players for prospects at a time when we're within striking distance for a playoff spot.  The fans are starting to come back -- 37,127 showed up for a Tuesday night game against San Diego -- and trading away Helton, Holliday, or Hawpe would only serve to run them off once again.

So my prognosis?  The Rockies should hold.  Play the cards you have in August and September, then see if you can put together a big deal in the offseason.