Well, after a bunch of blustering this weekend about Todd Helton possibly going to the Boston Red Sox, Charlie Monfort effectively killed the deal on Monday night, virtually assuring that Helton will be in a Rockies uniform at least for the start of the 2007 season.

There are skeptics out there who think that even though Monfort publicly nixed the deal, a deal still may be in the works.  That may be true, but let's not forget that Todd's contract includes a no-trade clause, and he earlier told the team that if they were going to trade him, they were going to get it done this week.  The team can still trade him if they'd like, but Todd has the right to veto it, and all indications are that he will.

Is this good for the Rockies?  Well, the biggest pro is that it doesn't throw instability into a lineup that struggled a bit in 2006.  Two rookies, Troy Tulowitzki and Chris Iannetta, are likely to be in the lineup on Opening Day, and trading Helton would have necessitated playing a third player -- likely Joe Koshansky or Ian Stewart -- who has never played above AA.  Or making John Mabry the full-time first baseman.  Something like that.

Also, while Todd is overpaid, he's still a pretty productive player -- no longer a 30-homer guy, but still a .300 hitter with a .400 OBP.  As the lineup strengthens around him, with Holliday and Atkins back, he may experience a resurgence in Colorado.

The bad?  Well, there's the obvious fact that he's getting paid a lot of money.  Management will either have to increase payroll, which they've so far been reluctant to do, or let Holliday and Atkins go when they reach free agency.  Also, there's the chance that he will continue to decline and his contract will be even more of an albatross.  At least right now Helton is productive enough to be tradeable.  If he has a line of .260/.330/.400, nobody is going to want to take on his contract.

Anyways, on the whole I think keeping Helton was a good move -- but we'll see what I think a year from now.

The Brewers took a step back last season, after finishing at .500 in 2005 for the first time in thirteen years.  That's not to say that the team is going to go back to the days when they perennially finished dead last in the NL Central.  The Pirates are too bad for that to happen.  But it's a bit of a disappointment, especially considering that the Central was there for the taking (after all, the World Champion Cardinals won the division with just 83 wins.)

So what happened?  Three pitchers who showed promise in 2005 -- Chris Capuano, Doug Davis, and Derrick Turnbow -- flopped.  Capuano and Davis weren't all that bad, though Capuano was a far cry from the 18-game winner he was in 2005 and Davis had an ERA near 5 and wound up getting shipped to Arizona.  Turnbow was awful, seeing his ERA balloon from under 2 to 6.87 and blowing a ton of saves.  Injuries to Ben Sheets meant that a bunch of pitchers who weren't ready had to make starts, often with predictably awful results.  Leadoff man Brady Clark came down after a solid 2005.  Corey Koskie, brought in to man third base, was hurt much of the season.

Of course, two prospects who did come in and contribute were Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks.  Any discussion of the Brewers' future begins and ends with these two.  Fielder, at 22, knocked 28 homers and had a .483 SLG; it's hard to see how he won't get better in the future.  Weeks, though, was hurt much of the season.  Injuries explain a lot of the Brewers' problems last year.

If they can stay healthy, the Brew Crew should have a pretty good team, though it may not show up in the standings with the Cardinals and Astros still being pretty good and the Cubs throwing around gobs of money.  Koskie has been a solid guy in the past, and J.J. Hardy still has potential, though he hasn't hit much in two seasons in the majors.  Bill Hall and his home run bat (35 in 2006 -- where did that come from?) will play somewhere, probably in left.  Clark, though, probably isn't as good as he showed in 2005 and Geoff Jenkins is on the downside of his career.  Johnny Estrada should be the starting catcher here.

The Brewers traded Davis, but got Jeff Suppan, whose deal is pretty expensive but reasonable considering what pitchers were getting this offseason.  Sheets, Capuano, and Suppan should be a solid front three, especially if Sheets is healthy all season.  Claudio Vargas is effective, and Dave Bush was pretty good last season.  If anybody is hurt or ineffective, the Brewers will have some young arms stashed at AAA -- though some aren't ready and others are probably better suited for relief.

In short, the Brewers are probably closer to what they showed in 2005 than last season.  If everybody's healthy, this team should finish fourth or better in the Central.  The Cardinals and Astros, though good, aren't overwhelming.

Projected 2007 Finish: 4th NL Central

Projected Starting Lineup

Clark cf
Weeks 2b
Hall lf
Fielder 1b
Koskie 3b
Jenkins rf
Estrada c
Hardy ss

Projected Starting Rotation

Ben Sheets
Chris Capuano (L)
Jeff Suppan
Claudio Vargas
David Bush

Projected 2007 Record: 80-82

The White Sox finished third in the AL Central in 2006, despite a 90-72 record -- that tells you how tough this division is.  (Okay, so the four non-Royals teams in the division inflate their record by beating up on the Royals a bunch.)  Of course, the team should be on the short list of World Series contenders for 2007.

There's power in the middle of the order.  Four players hit 30 or more homers last season: Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and Joe Crede.  GM Kenny Williams looked like a genius when he acquired Thome, who looked done at age 35, and watched him hit 42 homers and drive in 109 runs.  He also looked genius for holding onto Crede, who had been a disappointment up until he hit 30 homers last season.  And then there was Dye, who followed a .321/.390/.561 season in 2000 with four years of disappointment, but knocked 44 homers and drove in 120 runs last season.

And that's not even all of it.  Second baseman Tadahito Iguchi, shortstop Juan Uribe, and catcher A.J. Pierzynski are all decent power threats, while Ryan Sweeney -- projected to be the starting left fielder -- has that potential.  Speedster Scott Podsednik went under the knife and isn't expected to be ready for Opening Day, so the Sox signed Darin Erstad to fill in.  There's also Brian Anderson, who was the starter in center last season but struggled.

The problem last season was the pitching -- lights-out in 2005, but several pitchers struggled in 2006.  Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez -- added in the offseason, and expected to make what was already a strength even better -- combined to go 23-25.  Jon Garland won 18 games, but also had a 4.51 ERA.  Jose Contreras was great for about half the season but faded in the second half.  Closer Bobby Jenks saved 41 games but had a 4.00 ERA.  With Freddy Garcia out of town, Gavin Floyd could claim a spot in the rotation; he has potential but hasn't shown it much over the last couple of years.

However, as we saw in 2006, the offense can carry this pitching staff, perhaps to a playoff appearance.  Despite all five starters having an ERA over 4, the White Sox won 90 games, and Garcia and Garland won 17 and 18 games, respectively.  As long as the starters aren't so bad that they pitch the team out of games -- and while none of the starters are great, they should be good enough not to do that -- this team should be successful.

Projected 2007 finish: 2nd, AL Central

Projected Starting Lineup

Iguchi 2b
Erstad cf
Thome dh
Konerko 1b
Dye rf
Crede 3b
Pierzynski c
Sweeney lf
Uribe ss

Projected Starting Rotation

Jose Contreras
Mark Buehrle (L)
Jon Garland
Javier Vazquez
Gavin Floyd

Projected 2007 record: 92-70

Yes, I realize that there are rumors that Todd Helton is about to be shipped out of town, probably to Boston.  I'll save my commentary on this for after a deal goes down, if in fact it does.  We've had rumors about a Helton trade before, but this one seems to have legs.  Now back to our scheduled team preview...

The Reds were in contention for a long time last season, and wound up just three games out in the NL Central.  Of course, they might have won it if they hadn't traded away Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns for bullpen help.  Yeah, the team needed bullpen help, but Lopez and Kearns were a heavy price to pay, and the guys they got in return weren't all that good.

The Reds have a strong outfield, at least from an offensive standpoint.  (Defense is a different story.)  Adam Dunn is one of the best pure power hitters in all of baseball, and Ken Griffey Jr. hit 27 homers despite missing a third of the season with injuries.  It's kind of hard to believe that Junior is 37 years old now.  He has been around forever, and doesn't seem like he's slowing down, as he's productive when he's healthy.  Problem is, he hasn't been healthy in a long time... 2000 was the last time he had 500 at bats in a season.  2000.  That's six straight years that Junior has missed time due to injury.

Enough about Junior, though.  He's a sure-fire Hall of Famer, but he's no longer the face of the Reds.  That would be Dunn, the 27-year-old slugger who's knocked 40 homers each of the past three seasons.  He doesn't hit for much average (.234 last season), but he walks so much that he gets a decent OBP.  Amazingly, over half of his plate appearances ended with a strikeout, a walk, or a home run; Dunn does a lot of all three.  Ryan Freel, a speedster, will probably get the nod in right field, though Rule 5 pick Josh Hamilton -- a former #1 overall pick of the Devil Rays -- may find his way into some playing time.  You never know.

On the infield, Edwin Encarnacion, at 23, had a fine rookie season, while 25-year-old Brandon Phillips was also pretty good.  Both hit more homers than first baseman Scott Hatteberg, who continues to have a major league job despite being 37, limited defensively to first base and incapable of the kind of offense you'd like from your first baseman.  Adding further insult is Alex Gonzalez at short, he of the career .292 OBP.  I'm just assuming he's good defensively.  You don't get a starting job in the big leagues with that kind of hitting unless you're a great fielder (or Clint Barmes.)

The pitching staff was surprisingly not that bad in 2006, getting good seasons from Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang.  Things taper off after that, though.  Eric Milton continues to make the Reds look dumb for signing him to a huge deal, Kyle Lohse is still Kyle Lohse (4.57 ERA for the Reds in the latter half of '06 notwithstanding), and Kirk Saarloos?  One of these guys, really, is just holding down a spot for Homer Bailey, though we're not sure which one.  The bullpen is no better.  Todd Coffey or David Weathers will be the closer; both were okay in 2006 but nothing great.

This doesn't look like a contender, but then I thought the same about the Reds heading into last year.  You've got a somewhat dangerous lineup (as long as Griffey is healthy) and a couple of good starting pitchers, but not much else.  With the Cubs and Brewers likely to be improved, I'm thinking fifth place here.

Projected 2007 finish: 5th, NL Central

Projected Starting Lineup

Freel rf
Phillips 2b
Griffey cf
Dunn lf
Encarnacion 3b
Hatteberg 1b
Ross c
Gonzalez ss

Projected Starting Rotation

Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Eric Milton (L)
Kyle Lohse
Kirk Saarloos

The season will be a success if... I don't know, Homer Bailey's arm doesn't fall off?

Projected 2007 record: 74-88

The Indians seem pretty far removed from their run of the 1990s, but don't forget that two years ago the team finished second in the AL Central and was in the playoff race until the final weekend of the season.  From 1995 to 2001, the Indians won six division titles; however, that netted the squad just two World Series appearances and no World Championship.  Still, it's a pretty far cry from the amazing stretch of futility the Tribe endured from 1969 to 1993, when they never finished better than fourth in the AL East.  But the team still hasn't won a World Series since 1948.

Will that change this year?  The pieces are in place, and let's not forget that even last year, when the Tribe slumped to a 78-84 record and fourth place in the Central in a year that showed so much promise, they actually outscored their opponents by 88 runs.  Baseball Reference's Pythagorean record pegs the 2006 Indians as an 89-73 team.  Still, the AL Central is loaded, but the Indians are one of four teams who can legitimately claim they have a shot at winning the division -- and it's not even an outside shot.

DH Travis Hafner is one of the best pure hitters in the game, posting a .308/.439/.659 line last season, while CF Grady Sizemore has the potential to be a 30-30 guy.  For this Indians offense to really hum, though, the team probably needs another power threat to emerge.  It could be Ryan Garko, likely to be the full-time first baseman now that Ben Broussard is out of town.  Garko hit seven homers in 185 AB in the majors last season, after hitting 15 in 364 AB at Buffalo.  Still, he had just a .488 SLG in his minor league career, but that may improve now that he's moved out from behind the plate.  There, the Indians already have Victor Martinez, who has seen a slight drop in power over the past two seasons while improving his BA.  Shortstop Jhonny Peralta and right fielder Casey Blake have decent power, and the Indians added Trot Nixon and David Dellucci in the offseason, but both of those guys are on the wrong side of 30.

There are a few holes in the lineup.  At third, Aaron Boone is gone after a pedestrian year in Cleveland, likely to be replaced by former uber-prospect Andy Marte.  Marte was once one of the top prospects in the game and has been very good in the minors in the past three seasons -- hitting 58 homers -- though he hasn't done much in his admittedly small time in the majors.  The Indians did fill a potential hole at second by wresting Josh Barfield from the Padres.  This has the potential to be one of the best lineups in the majors; Hafner and Sizemore are proven commodities, while Martinez, Peralta, and Blake have shown themselves to at least be solid role players.  Garko, Marte, and Barfield all have potential.  Left field is the only real hole, but with Dellucci, Nixon, and Jason Michaels around, the Indians should be able to find somebody who can fill it decently.

The starting rotation is good, though the Indians may have torpedoed their playoff hopes by signing Jason Johnson before the season and watching him go 3-8 with a 5.96 ERA before dumping him at mid-season.  Jeremy Sowers proved capable, and he's the fifth starter.  C.C. Sabathia is the ace, but since going 17-5 in his rookie year of 2001 he hasn't won more than 15 games.  He always seems to get hurt at some point, though 2006 was the first year that he didn't make 30 or more starts; he's only thrown 200 innings once in his career.  Along with Sowers, the rest of Cleveland's rotation is made up of guys usually characterized as soft-tossers: Cliff Lee, Jake Westbrook, Paul Byrd.  Lee's 129 strikeouts were the most of the four, and it's worth wondering whether or not the Indians can get by with this rotation.  Still, all four of the pitchers who were in the rotation all year won 10 games despite only Sabathia having an ERA under 4; that's a testament to this offense.

The real issue is the bullpen, which had some bloated ERAs last season, and it's no better with Bob Wickman out of town as Joe Borowski is expected to be the team's closer.  This is a real weak spot for Cleveland, and the Tribe could use a good year from its 'pen; that could be the difference between first place and fourth in the Central.

Projected 2007 Finish: 4th, AL Central

Projected Starting Lineup

Sizemore cf
Barfield 2b
Martinez c
Hafner dh
Garko 1b
Blake rf
Marte 3b
Dellucci lf
Peralta ss

Projected Starting Rotation

C.C. Sabathia (L)
Jake Westbrook
Cliff Lee (L)
Paul Byrd
Jeremy Sowers (L)

The season will be a success if... The Tribe makes it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2001.  But the team will need more contributions from the bullpen for that to happen.

Projected 2007 record: 83-79

So MLB is apparently going to sign a deal with DirecTV giving that provider exclusive rights to the Extra Innings package.  My colleague over at Bad Altitude has a long post about it, which mostly reminds me why I hate the NFL, but does raise some good points.  I'm mostly indifferent, as I subscribe to MLB.TV rather than Extra Innings (I'm around my computer much more often than I'm around my TV) but I do see the problems with such a deal.

Many people simply can't get DirecTV.  Some, like me, are too transient to invest in a relatively expensive satellite dish.  The DirecTV service may not be as expensive as cable (I haven't looked into it), but it's certainly more expensive to buy a satellite dish than to get cable.  In addition, when you're like me and have only lived in your current place for six months, and are going to move again in another six months, what's the point?  Other people live in subdivisions with restrictive covenants that don't allow satellite dishes.  That's frankly your own fault for moving into a neighborhood with such a covenant, but this isn't the place for my various social commentaries (there are many.)

It's strange, though, that baseball has been unable to take advantage of its unique position in the sporting world.  From roughly the end of June until the end of August, MLB is the game.  Football, baseball, and hockey are all in their offseasons.  Baseball is slowly devolving into a niche sport, however, much like its non-football brethren.  It's sad, really, but perhaps baseball's greatest disadvantage is that it's played every day of the week.  In our busy world, once-a-week sports like football and NASCAR (which somehow is the second most-watched sport in America, despite the fact that, I don't know, it's incredibly boring) are easy to follow.  Following your favorite NFL team or NASCAR driver basically only involves sitting down on the couch for three hours on a Sunday afternoon.  Following baseball is so strenuous an exercise that only the most diehard fans can do it; for roughly six months out of the year, your team plays virtually every day, with only one day off per week.

The real problem with the DirecTV deal?  As I mentioned earlier, this actually makes baseball even harder to watch.  The NFL does this, too, but the NFL gets away with it because the NFL has a decent national TV schedule.  Every Sunday afternoon, you get three NFL games on the major broadcast networks (Fox and CBS), the Sunday night game on NBC, and the Monday night game on ESPN.  Of the fifteen or sixteen games every week, you can watch five of them without subscribing to the Sunday Ticket package (only on DirecTV.)  If you have a "local" team, you're going to see every one of their games.  The NFL, then, gets away with giving DirecTV exclusive rights to its Sunday Ticket package because there's already enough football on TV for most fans.  Sunday Ticket is only for the true diehards, or fans who don't live in their team's home market.

Baseball, on the other hand, has a pretty shoddy national TV package: the Wednesday night game on ESPN, the Saturday afternoon game on Fox (which, for some reason, isn't on all season), and the Sunday night game on ESPN, and occasionally a couple of other games scattered throughout the week on ESPN.  Even the Cubs and Braves, who formerly broadcast most of their games on national networks (WGN and TBS, respectively), are now moving many of their games to local networks or the regional Fox Sports network.  So that's four or five of roughly ninety games a week that are on national TV.

Why is this a problem?  Well, several reasons.  For one, the NFL does a much better job of farming out its "national" games (the Sunday night/Monday night games) so that a few teams don't dominate them.  The Yankees and Red Sox mostly dominate the Fox and ESPN national broadcasts.  Second, sheer numbers dictate that even without the Sunday Ticket package, you've got a pretty good chance of seeing your team.  If you live in your team's market, you're guaranteed to see it.  If you don't, you've got roughly a one-third chance of seeing your team's game one week through sheer chance.  Five of sixteen is a lot greater chance than five of ninety.  A Rockies fan who lives in, say, Tennessee may go all year without seeing his team without an Extra Innings or MLB.TV package.  A Broncos fan in Tennessee does not have such problems; maybe you miss a few games without the satellite package, but you can still catch your team a few times a year.

The final problem is that this still doesn't address MLB's "local market" problems.  Extra Innings and MLB.TV don't allow you to pick up your team's games if you live in what's defined as their local market.  These local markets have little to do with the ability to go to the game; Nashville is in the Reds' local market even though it's four hours from Cincinnati, so it's not as though I could just go to a Reds game on a whim.  The problem with this is that different teams manage this differently.  The Yankees and Red Sox have done a great job with this with, respectively, the YES Network and NESN.  On the other hand, the Reds do a terrible job.  Nashville's cable company occasionally broadcasts the feed from Fox Sports Ohio on Fox Sports South, but they don't carry every game.  While I'm not a Reds fan, MLB.TV and Extra Innings do black out their games in Nashville -- a serious annoyance for me when they're playing the Rockies and the Nashville network decides not to pick up the game.

Baseball, come on.  If you want your place back as king of all American sports, why not make it so that people can watch your games without forking over half their mortgage?  Why not make it so that I can see more than five games a week without buying DirecTV?  (Yeah, I know, I have MLB.TV, but some people don't have a broadband connection.)  Don't try to be like the NFL.  The NFL is king right now, and they can do whatever they want.  Be like the NBA: they know they're not the king, but at the same time they don't actively try to alienate people from their game.

The Astros aren't often talked about as a large-market team.  But in terms of size, Houston is the fourth-largest city in the country.  In terms of baseball, the Astros have had plenty of recent success, though the club historically hasn't been that great.  Yet the Astros seem to fall somewhere below the "large market" teams like the Yankees and Red Sox in terms of fan support and expectations.  It's hard to think of the Astros as a team with rabid fan support (though I'm sure it's there) -- Texas is a football state, after all.  And the team doesn't seem to have the expectations of the big-market teams.

All of that explains, perhaps, why the Astros' 82-80 season last year wasn't viewed widely as a great disappointment.  The fans, while appreciative of the team, don't seem to expect a World Championship every year -- in fact, the team has never won a championship, and 2005 was their first appearance in the World Series.  And that may be a good thing, as 2007 doesn't look like a championship year for the Astros.  Oh, sure, the Astros could make the playoffs simply because the NL Central is so bad (though for some reason it hasn't replaced the West as the division that baseball writers love to pick on.)  But to expect the team to make the World Series?  I don't know about that.

The losses from last year's team aren't terrible.  Andy Pettitte is gone, back to New York -- but then he wasn't terrific last season when he posted a 14-13 record and a 4.20 ERA.  That's not awful, but Jason Jennings, acquired in a trade with the Rockies, should be able to do that.  Roger Clemens, who was terrific last year, is likely gone, though he could re-sign with the Astros.  Quite frankly, I'm sick of the Clemens "is he going to pitch or not?" stuff.  It's amazing that owners are willing to let the guy sit on the sidelines until May or June, then spend a month or so in the minors before he actually pitches on the team (and makes millions of dollars while doing so.)  Of course, it's also amazing that a guy who's 44 years old can still dominate the league the way he did last year.

But enough of Clemens.  The chances of him pitching for the Astros this year are slim, leaving the 'Stros with a rotation of Roy Oswalt, Jennings, Woody Williams (signed in the offseason), Wandy Rodriguez, and Ezequiel Astacio.  Rodriguez and Astacio were both pretty bad in their time in the majors last year, and Astacio spent most of the year at AAA.  Williams, never dominant but a solid pitcher in his thirties, rebounded from a couple of down years to post a 3.65 ERA and a 12-5 record in San Diego last year.  But he's also 40 years old, and his peripherals last season (72 K and 35 walks in 145.1 innings) don't really suggest that he's going to be able to go much longer, and he's not going to eat a ton of innings.  This may not work out well for the Astros.

Of course, with Certified Innings Eaters Oswalt and Jennings on top of the rotation, the Astros should be fine.  Oswalt has averaged 200 innings a year in his six seasons in the bigs -- and that includes his rookie season of 2001 (when he didn't spend the whole year in the majors) and 2003 (when he was injured.)  Over the past three years he's averaged nearly seven innings per start.  JJ isn't quite the workhorse Oswalt is (but then, few people are), but he also averaged nearly seven innings per start.

Those two would be even more valuable if the back end of the Astros' bullpen reverts to form in 2007.  Brad Lidge, after two very successful seasons as the closer, struggled mightily in 2006, watching his ERA balloon from 2.29 to 5.28.  It all seems to have stemmed from watching Albert Pujols hammer one of his pitches out of the park in the 2005 NLCS; Brad hasn't been the same since then.  It's almost inexplicable, as Lidge's component ratios changed little from 2005 to 2006.  The number of homers he surrendered doubled (from 5 to 10) -- but even that doesn't explain a three-point rise in his ERA.  If Lidge returns to form in 2007, the Astros will have much more hope of making the postseason.

The offense -- and I'm saying this as a Rockies fan -- will actually probably be better without Willy Taveras, whose lack of OBP in the leadoff spot probably hurt the team more than his speed helped.  Chris Burke, who hit .276/.347/.418 in roughly half a season's worth of ABs, will be more than capable as his replacement.  Carlos Lee, lately of Milwaukee and Texas, provides a much-needed dose of power in the outfield, as he's hit better than 30 homers four consecutive years and could easily increase that number to 40 with the short porch in left at Minute Maid.  Jason Lane hit just .201 last season after hitting .267 in '05, his first full year in the bigs.  Progression to the mean suggests that he'll probably hit around .250 with 20 homers -- not great numbers for a right fielder, but the Astros don't seem to have any other good options out there.  Lane is mostly just keeping a spot warm for top prospect Hunter Pence.  Pence hit .283/.357/.533 at AA Corpus Christi last season, and he'll probably start the year at AAA -- but he could be up sooner than later if Lane struggles.

The infield saw a collective slump last season by Craig Biggio, Adam Everett, and Morgan Ensberg.  Biggio, who's now 41, is probably just about done, but he'll play this year in an effort to get to 3000 hits (he needs just 70 more.)  Ensberg saw his average drop from .283 to .235, and hit 13 fewer homers.  I'd be willing to say that his 2005 season was a fluke, except that I thought that about his 2003 season (until he was great in 2005.)  Still, Ensberg, even though he hasn't been in the majors that long, is 31 years old and is more likely to get worse than better.  Everett has never hit much; his glove keeps him in the lineup.  Good thing for Astros fans is that Lance Berkman is still around, and he seemed to be the only Astro not affected by the club's collective slump in 2006 as he batted .315 and knocked 45 homers.

What does 2007 hold for the Astros?  It's hard to imagine that virtually everybody on the team will slump in 2006 the way they did in 2007.  But it's also worth noting that many of the veterans the Astros are counting on (Biggio, Brad Ausmus, Williams) are old and almost done.  Only in the NL Central is this team a contender.

Projected 2007 finish: 2nd, NL Central

Projected Starting Lineup

Burke cf
Biggio 2b
Berkman 1b
Ensberg 3b
Lee lf
Lane rf
Everett ss
Ausmus c

Projected Starting Rotation

Roy Oswalt
Jason Jennings
Woody Williams
Wandy Rodriguez (L)
Ezequiel Astacio

The season will be a success if... The Astros play in the postseason, but this team is too limited to expect much beyond that.

Projected 2007 Record: 86-76

Never write off the Twins.

That's something I did around the middle of last season (and I'm not alone in doing that.)  Then the Twins came back, putting together an excellent second half to win their fourth division title in five years, beating the Tigers by one game (after the Tigers had led the division all year!)  Of course, the Twins got swept out of the playoffs by the A's, but it didn't quite ruin what had been a great season.

And now?  Well, Francisco Liriano, who was brilliant down the stretch last season but missed the playoffs -- likely contributing to the series loss -- is out for the season.  That's not good.  With Liriano out, the Twins have Boof Bonser penciled in as their #2 starter.  Can a team realistically dream of making the playoffs when Boof Bonser is the #2?  Sure, when Johan Santana is #1.  Numbers don't even begin to describe how dominant Santana is, but last season, he went 19-6 with a 2.77 ERA.  Over the last three years, he's 55-19, with an ERA under 3 each time.  Even more amazingly, the Twins were 27-7 when Santana started (including a stretch from late May to early September when they were 21-1!)  There's no such thing as an automatic W in baseball, but Santana's starts are the closest thing to it.

The rotation tails off, though, after Santana.  With Liriano out and Brad Radke having retired, that leaves the Twins with Bonser, Carlos Silva, Matt Garza, and Scott Baker behind Santana.  Garza and Baker both have a lot of potential, but neither one showed much in the majors last year -- though to be fair, in Garza's case he started the year at A-ball.  Silva gets by with average stuff by having great control -- but also little margin for error.  In 2006, he went 11-15 and his ERA spiked to 5.94, by far the highest of his career.  Still, if Silva is back to form in 2007, and Garza, Baker, and Bonser all pitch to their potential, this could be a good rotation.  On the other hand, this also has the potential to be a problem.  Closer Joe Nathan is one of the best in the business and should preserve plenty of wins for the starters.

The Twins' lineup has power -- Justin Morneau and Torii Hunter clubbed 30 homers apiece last year -- and also has some good contact hitters, including AL batting champ Joe Mauer.  The infield -- with Morneau, Luis Castillo, Jason Bartlett, and Nick Punto -- won't be bad, and the Twins will likely plug Rondell White or Jason Kubel in left field, with the other serving as DH.

On paper, the Twins look like a third-place team in the loaded AL Central.  But it's probably not a good idea to write them off.

Projected 2007 finish: 3rd, AL Central

Projected Starting Lineup

Castillo 2b
Punto 3b
Mauer c
Morneau 1b
Hunter cf
Cuddyer rf
Kubel lf
White dh
Bartlett ss

Projected Starting Rotation

Johan Santana (L)
Boof Bonser
Carlos Silva
Matt Garza
Scott Baker

The season will be a success if... The Twins make the playoffs.

Projected 2007 record: 85-77

The Rockies agreed to a deal with Brian Lawrence, formerly of the Padres, who was with the Nationals in 2006 but didn't pitch thanks to a torn labrum.

Not a bad signing, though it does make the already-crowded field for the starting rotation even more so.  The contract is for one year at $500,000, with a buyout option for $250,000.  That's pretty low-risk, and, as pitchers go these days, it's very cheap.

Obviously, the risk is that he's not healthy (though he says he'll be ready for opening day) or that he's not the same pitcher he was in San Diego.  He was mostly an average starter for the Padres from 2001-05, with a 49-61 record and a career 4.10 ERA (while making half his starts in San Diego.)  That doesn't sound like it's going to translate well to Colorado.

The upside is that we get a steal like the Cardinals did with Chris Carpenter, when they gambled on a guy coming off surgery and he turned into the best pitcher in the National League.  Okay, that's probably a stretch, but stranger things have happened.  Carpenter, by the way, has a career 4.09 ERA -- and that's including three seasons in St. Louis when he's legitimately been one of the best pitchers in baseball.  Carpenter's strikeout numbers in his five years in Toronto were oddly very similar to Lawrence's in San Diego.  There was absolutely nothing to convince you that he'd turn into the pitcher he has.

Am I saying Lawrence is Carpenter waiting to happen?  No, but he could be a pleasant surprise.  The obvious issue, of course, is where he fits into the pitching equation.  Right now, with Cook and Francis penciled into the rotation, you've got nine starting pitchers on the roster and just three rotation spots.  Something has to give.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rockies trade a starter before Opening Day.

In other news, I'm thinking about going to spring training in March.  Fun stuff.

Call it the Curse of Barry.

With Barry Bonds, the Pirates won three straight division titles from 1990-92 (though they never made it out of the NLCS.)  But Bonds departed for San Francisco after the 1992 season, and the Pirates haven't been back to the playoffs since.  They haven't had a winning record, and the team has slid into the residence of the Royals, Devil Rays, and other teams commonly fighting for the title of "worst team in baseball."  (Then again, Barry hasn't won a World Series since then, either, so maybe he's the one who is cursed.)

It wasn't always this way.  The Pirates have five World Championships -- more than any National League team but the Cardinals and Dodgers -- and, prior to the run of three straight division titles in the early 1990s, they had won an amazing six division titles in the 1970s, winning the World Series twice.  They have a great ballpark and a fanbase that will support a winner (see the Steelers), yet the team has been mired in futility over the last few years.  Sure, Pittsburgh is one of the smallest markets in the majors, but playing in a small market doesn't explain the boneheaded decisions management has made in recent years.  In the 2002 draft, a draft that saw B.J. Upton, Prince Fielder, Jeff Francis, Jeremy Hermida, Scott Kazmir, Jeff Francoeur, and Matt Cain selected in the first round, the Pirates went with Bryan Bullington with the #1 overall pick.  I know, the draft is a crapshoot, but even then few people thought Bullington was worthy of such a high selection, and the Pirates admitted that he was probably just a middle-of-the-rotation type and were drafting him because he was "signable."  Bullington has pitched 1.1 innings in the majors to this date.  The Pirates also reportedly turned down the Phillies' offer of Ryan Howard for Kris Benson a couple of years ago (an offer I'm sure the Phillies are glad was turned down), instead getting a couple of guys who couldn't carry Howard's jockstrap.

The most recent bad move?  That would be acquiring Adam LaRoche from the Braves.  Not that LaRoche is a bad player -- he did hit 32 homers last season -- but first basemen who can hit are not difficult to find.  Giving up a legit closer in Mike Gonzalez and a good middle infield prospect, Brent Lillibridge, is a pretty steep price for a league-average first baseman.  Yes, LaRoche is young and is an improvement over Xavier Nady -- who only gets moved to the outfield instead of the bench -- but seriously, the Pirates couldn't find a decent first baseman somewhere in their farm system?

Still, if LaRoche duplicates (or improves) his 2006 performance, the Pirates will have a nice lefty-righty combo in the middle of the order with him and Jason Bay.  Third baseman Freddy Sanchez surprised just about everybody by winning the NL batting title last year, and Jack Wilson is a good gloveman and decent hitter at short.  Nady will play in right field and provide some pop with a decent average.  Chris Duffy in center is young and struggled at the plate last year, but there's some room for improvement.  Second baseman Jose Castillo hit 14 homers but also had a weak .299 OBP in '06.  At catcher, the Pirates have the option of "good average/no power" (Ronny Paulino) or "decent power/awful average" (Ryan Doumit.)  My guess is they'll have some sort of platoon.  Doumit is a switch-hitter, which gives him something of an edge, and since catchers' BAs vary so much from year-to-year I'd rather have the guy with power if given the choice.

The pitching is boom or bust.  Finesse lefties -- Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, and Tom Gorzelanny -- will probably comprise three-fifths of the rotation, along with strikeout artist Ian Snell and Shawn Chacon, who has made the Rockies' decision to trade him look good by being genuinely awful since leaving Colorado (that, and the fact that Ramon Ramirez has turned out well.)  There are plenty of problems with this rotation.  Duke, after being brilliant down the stretch in 2005, took a step back last season and was entirely too hittable.  Snell is prone to giving up the gopher ball, though he somehow won 14 games with a 4.74 ERA and the Pirates' offense behind him.  Maholm is also very hittable and walks too many batters.  Gorzelanny likewise gives up a lot of free passes.  And Chacon was pretty bad for the Pirates last season after pitching himself out of New York.

The bullpen is hurt by the loss of Gonzalez.  Now, the Pirates are looking at using Salomon Torres as the closer.  Matt Capps was strong in middle relief last season, while Damaso Marte struggled but is still a good lefty specialist.

The Pirates avoided the cellar by one game in 2006, but with the Cubs looking improved, that probably won't happen again.  Instead, they'll battle the Reds to stay out of the cellar.

Projected 2007 finish: 6th, NL Central

Projected Starting Lineup

Duffy cf
Wilson ss
Sanchez 3b
Bay lf
LaRoche 1b
Nady rf
Castillo 2b
Doumit/Paulino c

Projected Starting Rotation

Zach Duke (L)
Ian Snell
Paul Maholm (L)
Shawn Chacon
Tom Gorzelanny (L)

The season will be a success if... The youngsters show some improvement.  While a winning season would be nice, that's asking a bit much of this team; merely avoiding last place again would be good.

Projected 2007 record: 67-95

All right, raise your hand if you had the Tigers in the World Series at the beginning of the season.  Liars.  Heck, a lot of people though that the Tigers were going to be easy fodder for the Yankees in round one of the playoffs -- and that was after the Tigers rolled through the regular season at 95-67.

How completely unexpected was that?  Well, it was the Tigers' first winning season since 1993.  It was the first playoff appearance for the team since 1987 (which also happened to be the last time the Tigers had won more than 90 games.)  Was 2006 a fluke?  Or are the Tigers a club on the rise?  Can we expect them to make it back to the playoffs?

The answer to the last question is maybe.  The AL Central is still the toughest in baseball, though the Twins probably will not be as good as they were last year and the White Sox didn't really improve their lot in the offseason (and may have actually hurt themselves.)  But I'm also hard-pressed to believe the Indians will underachieve again (or were they just playing over their heads in 2005?)

The offense is solid.  No one player really stands out.  Magglio Ordonez has been very good in the past, while Gary Sheffield is coming off an injury-plagued season and can no longer be expected to hit 35 homers on a regular basis.  But the Tigers lineup doesn't have any obvious zeroes, either.  A good way to sum up the Tigers last season was that they had four players who hit more than 20 homers (and two more with 19), but none who hit more than 30.  Adding Sheffield probably helps, but even if he's hurt or ineffective, Ordonez, Curtis Granderson, Craig Monroe, and Marcus Thames are all very capable outfielders.  The infield of Brandon Inge, Carlos Guillen, Placido Polanco, and Sean Casey is solid all around, and that's assuming that Casey starts (after all, the Tigers still have Chris Shelton around.)  And Ivan Rodriguez behind the plate is still as good as any in baseball.  Even if no one player blows you away, this Tigers offense will score runs.

The real key to the Tigers' resurgence, though, was the pitching staff, which returns intact from last season.  Kenny Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander, and Nate Robertson all made 30 or more starts, and the highest ERA of the four was Bonderman's 4.08.  Mike Maroth was hurt for much of the season, but the Tigers were able to get by with Wilfrido Ledezma and Zach Miner in his absence.  There's some evidence that the Tigers got lucky with their pitching last season -- Rogers, Robertson, and even Verlander all survived even with poor peripherals -- but that may just be a reflection of playing in a park friendly to pitchers with a good defense behind them.  Those four will once again form the front four, with one of the three of Maroth, Miner, and Ledezma filling the final spot.  The bullpen got a solid season from Todd Jones, but if he's the closer again it's because Joel Zumaya has a bad spring.  Everybody knows about Zumaya now -- the 22-year-old hurler with the sick 102 mph fastball -- and he was one of the most effective relievers in the majors last season, with a 1.94 ERA and 97 strikeouts in just 83.2 innings.  Yeah, he also walked 42, but he was so unhittable that it didn't really make much difference.

The Tigers epitomize something of an ideal among baseball teams.  While there isn't a lot of star power -- Sheffield's best days are behind him -- there aren't any obvious zeroes hanging around, either on offense or on the pitching staff.  Unfortunately, in the same division as the White Sox, that may not be enough.

Projected 2007 finish: 2nd, AL Central

Projected Starting Lineup

Granderson cf
Polanco 2b
Guillen ss
Ordonez rf
Sheffield dh
Monroe lf
Rodriguez c
Casey 1b
Inge 3b

Projected Starting Rotation

Kenny Rogers (L)
Jeremy Bonderman
Justin Verlander
Nate Robertson (L)
Mike Maroth (L)

The season will be a success if... The Tigers make it back to the playoffs.  Yeah, they made the World Series last year, but simply making the playoffs again is a more realistic goal.

Projected 2007 record: 89-73

Looking for the worst team in the majors in 2007?  It may well be the Nationals.

Frank Robinson, who somehow coaxed a .500 season out of the team in 2005 and then was fired after the team went 71-91 last season, was not to blame for the sorry state of this franchise.  That was a result of Jeffrey Loria's shoddy ownership of the team, which led to MLB's takeover of the franchise and subsequent move to Washington.  Without a lot of talent in the majors and a virtually nonexistent farm system, there's not much hope for the immediate future.

Then again, the team does have a budding star in 22-year-old Ryan Zimmerman, who established himself as one of the best third basemen in the National League with a .287/.351/.471 campaign in which he led the Nats with 110 RBI.  The bad news?  GM Jim Bowden gambled (and lost) that he could keep Alfonso Soriano around, but was utterly unprepared for the gobs of money the Cubs threw at him.  While the Nationals are probably happy they won't be saddled with Soriano's ridiculous contract for the next decade, they missed the opportunity to get some real help for the team by trading him at the deadline.  That leaves the offense in the hands of Zimmerman, the perpetually injured Nick Johnson, and the perpetual promise of Austin Kearns, acquired in a trade with the Reds last season.  Johnson is a solid player but doesn't provide a ton of power for a first baseman.  Kearns, who began his career with 28 homers in 664 AB in 2002 and 2003, has yet to replicate that production, and frustrated the Reds to the point that they shipped him (along with Felipe Lopez and Ryan Wagner) to the Nationals for the rough equivalent of a bag of peanuts.

Lopez is pencilled in as the starting shortstop, but he may be moved to second, partly because of his defense, partly because the Nationals have no second baseman after trading Jose Vidro, and partly because the Nationals apparently think their lineup can carry Cristian Guzman, who didn't play in 2006 and was last seen posting a .219/.260/.314 line in 2005.  I really can't tell you why the Nationals don't just play Lopez at short and find somebody to play second, as it's not hard to find middle infielders who can equal Guzman's production.

There are some other nice players here -- Chris Snelling, who the Mariners stupidly traded to the Nats to get Vidro, in center, and Ryan Church, who hit 10 homers in limited action, in left.  But overall, this Nationals lineup scares no one, and worse, with the notable exception of Zimmerman and maybe Kearns, most of these guys can't be expected to be much better than what they already are.  And there's virtually no help to speak of from the farm.

And if you think the offense is bad... wait until you see the pitching!  Last year, the Nats saw four starting pitchers -- Ramon Ortiz, Tony Armas, Livan Hernandez, and Pedro Astacio -- post ERAs over 5.  The good news is that all four are gone.  The bad news?  The guys who will replace them may actually be even worse.  John Patterson is the best of this bunch, and injuries limited him to just eight starts in 2006.  In 2005, when he was healthy, Patterson went 9-7 with a fine 3.13 ERA.  Lefty Mike O'Connor, who went 3-8 with a 4.80 ERA in 20 starts last year, will also probably figure into the rotation mix.  Four other players who made starts for the Nationals last year -- Billy Traber, Jason Bergmann, Shawn Hill, and Beltran Perez -- are still around, though none were that good in '06 and none are highly regarded as prospects.  There's also Jerome Williams, former Giants and Cubs hurler, who wasn't very good the last time he was seen in the majors but may actually be the Nationals' second-best starter.

In short, the Nationals' rotation went from being a bunch of guys you've heard of who aren't very good (and Livan Hernandez, who's better than what he showed in 2006) to a bunch of guys you haven't heard of who aren't very good, either.  This all puts to waste Chad Cordero, one of the best closers in the game.  What's the point in having a good closer if you never have leads to protect?  The Pirates addressed this issue for trading their closer for a bat; the Nationals might try the same thing, since they probably won't be contending for anything this year.

Bottom line: the Nationals may be the worst team in baseball.  At least the Royals made an effort to improve their team in the offseason (yes, the Gil Meche signing was a little over-the-top, but having Meche as your ace is better than having Scott Elarton as your ace... which the Royals actually did a year or two ago.)

Projected 2007 Finish: 5th, NL East

Projected Starting Lineup

Lopez 2b
Snelling cf
Zimmerman 3b
Johnson 1b
Kearns rf
Church lf
Schneider c
Guzman ss

Projected Starting Rotation

Your guess is as good as mine.

The season will be a success if... They don't completely embarrass themselves?  You know, having the worst record in the league may not be so bad as it means the Nats get the #1 draft pick.  The farm system needs help more than anything.

Projected 2007 record: 58-104

The Blue Jays, coming off arguably their best season since 1993, have the pieces in place to make a serious run at the playoffs.  Of course, we said that last season, but things didn't really come together for the Jays.  They did wind up at 87-75, their best finish since 1998, and finished second in the AL East, beating the Red Sox by one game.  That marked the first time since 1993 that the Jays have finished better than third place.

The clear strength of this team is the offense.  The Jays were third in the AL in batting average, fourth in OBP, second in slugging, fourth in homers.  Somehow, though, that only translated to seventh in the AL in runs.  The Jays obviously need to do a better job of getting those baserunners home -- once again, strange considering the utter amount of power in this lineup.  There were several roster changes in the offseason, but mostly for the better.  Royce Clayton comes in to play short -- normally, that would be a negative, but last year's shortstops were John McDonald and Russ Adams, who respectively batted .223 and .219.  Frank Catalanotto is out, leaving the left field job to Reed Johnson -- who hit .319 last season -- on a full-time basis.  Johnson, though, will be pushed by Adam Lind, who had a combined .330/.394/.556 line at AA and AAA last season, including 24 homers.  If Lind wins the starting job and is anywhere near as good as his minor league performance suggests he could be, this lineup will be very dangerous.

Finally, clubhouse cancer Shea Hillenbrand is gone, future Hall of Famer Frank Thomas is in.  Thomas was widely assumed to be done before 2006 -- then he hit 39 homers to go with the usual great OBP and parlayed that into a big contract with the Jays in the offseason.  The Big Hurt is just 13 homers away from 500, which should motivate him this season (and since as far as I know there's never been so much as a whisper about Frank being on steroids, he's virtually a guaranteed Hall of Famer if he gets there.)

The one possible negative to this offense is that Bengie Molina is gone after one season in Toronto, but it's probably also unreasonable to expect Molina to repeat 2006.  Gregg Zaun will likely get the bulk of the starts at catcher.

Of course, the real meat of the lineup -- Vernon Wells, Troy Glaus, Lyle Overbay, and Alex Rios -- are all still in town, and that's a great thing for the Jays.  The Jays locked up Wells to a long-term deal in the offseason, ensuring that he'll be north of the border for the next few years.  Glaus still has power, though he doesn't hit for a great average.  Overbay hits for a good average and also contributed 22 homers in '06.  Rios was the breakout guy in '06, posting a nice line of .302/.349/.516 -- though it would be nice of him to take a walk once in a while.

With that lineup, you'd think the Jays would be a legit World Series team, but the pitching is holding them back.  None of that is Roy Halladay's fault, as he posted Cy-worthy numbers in '06 (16-5, 3.19 ERA.)  A.J. Burnett, on the other hand, was mostly a bust in his first season in Toronto, missing a good chunk of the season due to injuries and not being the pitcher Toronto paid for when he was healthy.  After that, things get very shaky.  Among the players who started ten games or more for Toronto last season, Ted Lilly was the only one who had an ERA under 5, and he's out of town.  Gustavo Chacin somehow managed a 9-4 record despite a 5.04 ERA (okay, with that offense behind him...), while Casey Janssen and Shawn Marcum were similarly ineffective.  The Jays are still waiting for Dustin McGowan to contribute at the major league level, and Josh Towers (no longer with the team) was genuinely awful last season.  Massive (6'6", 250) 24-year-old Ty Taubenheim showed something last season but needs more polish.  Finally, the Jays shored up the rotation a bit by signing John Thomson -- but will he be effective after spending much of 2006 on the shelf.

The bullpen, anchored by B.J. Ryan, is decent, but will be hurting from the loss of prime setup man Justin Speier.  Aside from Ryan, the bullpen is nothing special, but it needs to be effective in getting the ball to Ryan in the late innings == especially considering that other than Halladay, the Jays' starters generally don't go deep into ballgames, and Burnett and Thomson were injured last season.

The gist?  The Jays' offense will be great, but if they're going to challenge the Yankees for supremacy in the East, the pitching will need to be better.  A lot better.

Projected 2007 finish: 3rd, AL East

Projected Starting Lineup

Johnson lf
Rios rf
Wells cf
Overbay 1b
Glaus 3b
Thomas dh
Hill 2b
Clayton ss
Zaun c

Projected Starting Rotation

Roy Halladay
A.J. Burnett
Gustavo Chacin (L)
John Thomson
Shaun Marcum

The season will be a success if... The Blue Jays make the playoffs.  There's enough promise here that making the postseason is a reasonable goal.

Projected 2007 record: 86-76

Something about the 2006 Mets must have been disappointing.  You know, going 97-65, best record in the National League, finally breaking the Braves' stranglehold on the East.  But the flameout in the playoffs has left Mets fans with a sour taste in their mouths this offseason.  Losing Pedro Martinez hurt, as the Mets' already shaky rotation was weakened even further down the stretch.  Pedro's still hurt, and he won't even begin throwing until March, so the chances of him starting the season are nil.

The Mets made relatively few changes this offseason -- why mess with success? -- and while that's asking for trouble with the starting rotation, it's an undeniably good thing for the offense, which can carry the team through Pedro's absence.  The only change came in left field, where Moises Alou replaces Cliff Floyd.  Otherwise, it's the same old Mets offense that finished third in the NL in runs, fourth in homers, eighth in BA last season.  While many of the Mets (Carlos Delgado, Shawn Green, Alou, Jose Valentin, Paul Lo Duca) are on the downswing of their careers, Delgado is still highly productive and Alou is when healthy.  Green is no longer a 40-homer guy (not even close), but the Mets do have Lastings Milledge waiting in the wings.  Ben Johnson also makes for nice insurance if somebody gets hurt in the outfield.

Then there's Carlos Beltran, who many called a bust after his first season with the Mets, but who changed his fortunes in year two to the tune of 41 homers.  David Wright and Jose Reyes are the counter to the Phillies' right side of the infield, forming the best left side in the National League.  Beltran and Wright, along with Delgado, are good bets to top the 30-homer mark.  The offense is still extremely dangerous.

The pitching, though -- particularly without Pedro -- doesn't scare anybody.  Tom Glavine is still effective, but he'll also be 41 on Opening Day, and he just can't go on forever, can he?  Orlando Hernandez, the #2 starter in Pedro's absence, is probably in his 40s as well, though he insists he's 37.  25-year-old John Maine was solid last season and should be a nice #3.  After that, there's Oliver Perez.  Perez looked like the real deal a couple of years ago, then got so bad that the Pirates gave up on him and traded him to the Mets.  Now he's trying to recover the pieces of his career, but there's still hope.  After all, he's only 25, and despite the problems he's still averaged better than a strikeout per inning for his career.  The fifth spot will probably be manned by top prospect Mike Pelfrey.  It's a decent rotation, but not one I'd want if I have serious dreams of winning a World Series.

The flipside is that the bullpen was one of the best in baseball last season, and with that offense behind them it's not as though the Mets pitchers need to throw shutout ball every time out.  Other than submariner Chad Bradford, the key cogs in last year's bullpen -- Billy Wagner, Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano, and Duaner Sanchez -- are back.  The bad news?  Well, relievers' performances often vary widely from year-to-year, so it's not a given that the 'pen will be great again.  Plus, if anybody in the rotation is injured (a real possibility when your rotation has two 40-year-olds and a guy who's had arm problems in the past), Heilman, one of the Mets' most dependable relievers, will probably be the first guy to be called into the rotation.

The Mets do have some talent down on the farm, and quite a few of them are MLB-ready (including Pelfrey.)  Of course, considering how Victor Zambrano turned out, Mets fans have got to be wondering what management was thinking when they traded Scott Kazmir.

Projected 2007 Finish: 1st, NL East

Projected Starting Lineup

Reyes ss
Lo Duca c
Beltran cf
Delgado 1b
Wright 3b
Alou lf
Green rf
Valentin 2b

Projected Starting Rotation

Tom Glavine (L)
Orlando Hernandez
John Maine
Oliver Perez (L)
Mike Pelfrey

The season will be a success if... The Mets win the World Series.  No, this isn't the Yankees, but after the way last season ended -- and with most of the team returning intact -- Mets fans won't be satisfied with anything less than a championship.

Projected 2007 record: 95-67

Few teams in baseball are as difficult to get a read on heading into the season as the Boston Red Sox.

The hitting?  There's Manny and Papi.  After that... well, J.D. Drew is great when he's healthy, and he's actually been healthy the last couple of years.  Those three give the Sox as dangerous a middle of the lineup as any team in baseball (that includes you, Yankees.)  Of course, that's assuming Drew is healthy enough to play a full season.  Kevin Youkilis posts a great OBP, but he doesn't give you the kind of power you want from a first baseman.  Since the Sox play in the AL, though, they can get by with him at first, unlike a NL team (which would probably have to deal with Ortiz playing in the field.)  Mike Lowell rebounded nicely in 2006, but at this point in his career he's only a modest power threat.  Jason Varitek, the unquestioned leader of the team, hit just .238 in 2006, turns 35 in April, and should be pushed by prospect George Kottaras.  That doesn't even account for the hole the Sox have in the lineup every fifth day when Doug Mirabelli (.193/.261/.342) has to catch for Tim Wakefield.  Julio Lugo is a decent MLB shortstop and is at least an improvement over Alex Gonzalez, but don't expect him to be Nomar.  Coco Crisp is solid but not spectacular in center, and Dustin Pedroia is unproven at second.  3 to 5, the Sox may be the best in baseball, but 1 to 9, they're nothing close to the Yankees.  I'm not even sure they're as good as the Blue Jays in that regard.

Curt Schilling continues to defy age -- he's now 40 years old, but he's coming off a season when he went 15-7 with a 3.97 ERA.  After that, the rotation is pretty shaky.  Josh Beckett somehow won sixteen games despite a 5.01 ERA.  Despite his reputation, that performance isn't terribly out of line with his career to date -- certainly, it's not as good as usual, but he's not quite as good as some would have you believe.  Daisuke Matsuzaka evidently knows about 17 pitches (I'm exaggerating.)  All indications are that he'll be at least a fine #3 for the Sox.  Jonathan Papelbon should be as good a starter as he was as a closer.  Good move?  Depends on whether you value a reliable #4 or a reliable closer, which the Sox no longer have (Mike Timlin?)  The bullpen will be very shaky.

There's not enough here to expect a division title, but a second-place finish and a wild card are not out of the question.

Projected 2007 Finish: 2nd, AL East; AL Wild Card

Projected Starting Lineup

Youkilis 1b
Crisp cf
Ortiz dh
Ramirez lf
Drew rf
Lowell 3b
Lugo ss
Varitek c
Pedroia 2b

Projected Starting Rotation

Curt Schilling
Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Jonathan Papelbon
Tim Wakefield

The season will be a success if... The Sox return to the playoffs.  However, there's not really enough here to contend for a World Series.

Projected 2007 record: 90-72

It had to end sometime, didn't it?

For the first time since 1990, the Braves weren't division champs.  Oh, there was the strike-shortened season of 1994, in which the Braves technically were second in the NL East when play stopped... but for all intents and purposes, the Braves had won fourteen straight division titles.  Finally, in 2006, the team slumped to a 79-83 finish, good for third in the NL East, but just one game ahead of the Marlins, who were supposed to be awful.

Certainly, luck played a part -- despite their 79-83 record, the Braves actually outscored their opponents by 44 runs.  Considering that they finished 18 games behind the Mets in the standings, you can't blame the lack of a division title on luck, but the Braves were actually better than their record showed.

And don't blame youth, either.  While the team was pretty young, the youngsters actually were pretty good.  The established veterans, on the other hand, struggled, and were primarily responsible for the Braves' demise.  Still, the pieces are in place for the Braves to contend for yet another division title in 2007.  It all starts with the pitching staff.

The pitching staff was the problem in 2006, and to address the bullpen -- a major factor in the Braves' 2006 struggles -- the team today traded Adam LaRoche to the Pirates for Mike Gonzalez.  (Adam, I'm sorry.)  This season, the bullpen could be one of the team's strengths after being a major question mark last season.  Most of those who were responsible for the pen's meltdown in 2006 are out of town or, at the very least, won't play prominent roles for the Braves this season.  Bob Wickman was dynamite down the stretch as closer, but he'll be 38 next month, so Gonzalez seems a more likely choice to start the year as closer.  Macay McBride, Chad Paronto, Tyler Yates, and Oscar Villarreal were fine in 2006; assuming they don't have a collective breakdown, the bridge to the back end will be good.  And the Braves supplemented the 'pen even further in the offseason by adding Rafael Soriano in the offseason.

The Braves need Tim Hudson to return to form, as there are a lot of question marks in the rotation.  Question #1: Can John Smoltz, who turns 40 during the season, continue to be the ace?  My guess is yes.  Question #2: Is Chuck James for real?  James went 11-4 with a fine 3.78 ERA in 18 starts last season.  If Hudson returns to form, Smoltz's arm doesn't fall off, and James shows that 2006 wasn't a fluke, the top three will be fine.  After that... there's Kyle Davies, who pitched so poorly (like, 3-7, 8.38 ERA) and wound up getting hurt.  And, apparently, the Braves are counting on a contribution from Mike Hampton, which, as Rockies fans know very well, is not a very good idea.  Surely the Braves have somebody on the farm who can beat out Hampton for the final spot in the rotation.  And Davies isn't exactly the solution at #4, but then again, he's just 23 and 2006 may not be indicative of his real abilities.

The offense should be fine, though moving LaRoche inserts a needless question mark into things a month before spring training.  There are so many different options in the infield, though Edgar Renteria, who's now back to being a fine shortstop since he's back in the NL, will start.  Chipper Jones will, too, though it's unclear where.  Do the Braves keep him at third and play Scott Thorman at first?  Or do they move Chipper to first to create a spot for Willy Aybar?  There's also Martin Prado, and utilityman Pete Orr.  But it's probably not the best idea to move a guy who just hit 32 homers this soon before the season.  Thorman has the potential to match that, but he also had a .263 OBP in admittedly limited action last season.

On the other hand, there's no question at catcher, where Brian McCann is one of the best catchers in the game, period (let's stop throwing the "young" qualifier in there.)  At 22, he's coming off a season in which he posted a .333/.388/.572 line.  Few catchers come close to that, and he's also fine defensively.

Andruw Jones, who seems like he's been around forever but is just 29, will patrol center and can be reasonably expected to post yet another fine season at the plate.  His average slipped to .262 last season but he also belted 41 homers.  Jeff Francoeur also has a ton of power but is inhibited by his inability (or unwillingness) to draw a walk.  Still, he'll be just 23 on Opening Day.  The weak link in the outfield is Ryan Langerhans, who hit a weak .241 while spiltting time with Matt Diaz in left.  Expect a similar situation this season unless either of the two asserts enough production to play full-time.

Considering the strength of the Mets and even the Phillies, there are just too many question marks on this Braves team to expect a division title.  But if everything falls into place, the Braves could make a run at the playoffs.

Projected 2007 finish: 3rd, NL East

Projected Starting Lineup

Aybar 2b
Renteria ss
C. Jones 3b
A. Jones cf
Francoeur rf
McCann c
Thorman 1b
Langerhans/Diaz lf

Projected Starting Rotation

John Smoltz
Tim Hudson
Chuck James (L)
Kyle Davies
Mike Bleeping Hampton (no arm)

The season will be a success if... The Braves win the division, though that's a bit unreasonable.

Projected 2007 record: 85-77

So when do the Rays turn the corner?

Since their inception in 1998, the Devil Rays have finished last eight times in nine seasons (and in the one year they didn't finish last, they finished fourth.)  Their franchise wins record?  70 games.  2006 marked the third time in franchise history that the team finished with 100 or more losses.  2006 also marked the third time in franchise history that the team had the worst record in the majors.

However, there is hope for the future.  The Devil Rays' farm system has been absolutely loaded for the past couple of years, bolstered by both high draft picks and trading away veterans.  Most baseball insiders agree that if Tampa Bay doesn't have the best farm system in the majors, it's certainly in the top three.  Already some talented players from the farm system have made their way up to the majors: Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, Jorge Cantu, Scott Kazmir.  Now, more are on their way.  The franchise will have trouble finding places to play for all of these talented young players.

Still, to this point, the farm system hasn't produced much in the way of pitching, other than Kazmir, who went 10-8 with a 3.24 ERA in 2006, striking out 163 batters in 144.2 innings -- and that was at age 22.  Kazmir fronts what's otherwise a pretty bad starting rotation.  Casey Fossum, a junkballer who would either be a #5 starter or a quad-A guy for most teams, is penciled in as the #2 starter.  James Shields, Tim Corcoran, and Jae Seo will likely be the other three starters.  Of course, there are a bunch of other guys in the mix, many of whom are young guys who other organizations gave up on (Edwin Jackson, Marcos Carvajal.)  There are also a few nice prospects on the mound who may or may not be ready to contribute -- but when two starters here had ERAs over 5 last year, it's not like you have to be THAT good.

Hitting, on the other hand, is a different story, as the Rays have a ton of prospects and have the nice problem of needing to find places for all of them to play.  Rocco Baldelli and Carl Crawford, veterans by Devil Rays standards, are both just 25.  They'll likely start in center and left, respectively, assuming Baldelli is healthy.  Likely joining them in the outfield will be Delmon Young, who's just 21 and is widely regarded as the best prospect in baseball.  Of course, that doesn't even account for Elijah Dukes, another top prospect who looks ready to contribute -- so don't be surprised if somebody gets traded.  In the infield, Jorge Cantu looked like a budding star when he hit 28 homers in 2005, but in 2006 he slumped to 14 -- while hitting just .249.  Designated hitter Jonny Gomes, likewise, saw his average drop, hitting just .216.  Cantu is expected to move to first base after playing second, due largely to his defense (or lack thereof.)  His possible replacement at second is Japanese import Aki Iwamura, but the Rays also have Brendan Harris hanging around, and B.J. Upton needs a place to play as well (he's another top prospect.)  Upton could play at third, with Ben Zobrist at short, and Dioner Navarro behind the plate.

It can't be understated just how young this Devil Rays team is.  Gomes, at 26, may be the oldest player in the Devil Rays' starting lineup on Opening Day.  Everybody else will be 25 or younger; Kazmir, Navarro, Upton, Dukes, and Young will all be 23 or younger.  The obvious question, aside from finding places for everybody to play, is how long it will take the Rays to field a competitive team.  They're going to need some pitching for that to happen, but the lineup has the potential to be one of the best in baseball -- a couple of years from now.

Projected 2007 Finish: 5th, AL East

Projected Starting Lineup

Crawford lf
Baldelli cf
Cantu 1b
Gomes dh
Young rf
Upton 3b
Iwamura 2b
Navarro c
Zobrist ss

Projected Starting Rotation

Scott Kazmir (L)
Casey Fossum (L)
James Shields
Tim Corcoran
Jae Seo

The season will be a success if... The Rays avoid the cellar for only the second time in history, and the young guys show that they're not all just hype.

Projected 2007 record: 67-95

The Phillies have seemingly been on the brink of something great for a while now, but it hasn't happened.  The team hasn't made the playoffs since 1993 -- when the team won the old NL East and advanced to the World Series, where they lost to Toronto.  Part of this can be blamed on the post-1993 realignment; playing in the same division as the Braves when they were winning all those division titles didn't help.  On the flipside, there have been some poor management decisions, and the farm system hasn't really produced a lot of players of note, at least not until the past couple of years.

That's changing, as the Phils have homegrown perhaps the best right side of the infield in baseball, with reigning NL MVP Ryan Howard at first and budding star Chase Utley at second.  Those two combined to hit 90 homers and drive in 251 runs in 2006, and both are still in their twenties.  They form the heart of the Phillies' lineup, along with left fielder Pat Burrell, who seems like he's been around forever but is just 30 years old.  Burrell knocked 29 homers in 2006, but only batted .258.  Surprising power from shortstop Jimmy Rollins -- who hit 25 homers in 2006 despite being just 5'8" -- helps to make the Phillies lineup quite dangerous.

The rest of the lineup isn't quite as good, though Rod Barajas has shown some home run power and Aaron Rowand is a decent hitter in center.  Wes Helms is a decent fill-in at third, and Shane Victorino is unproven in right.  Some contributions from these four would make for a solid batting order, perhaps as good as any in the division except the Mets.  Jayson Werth is a good fourth outfielder to have around.

The pitching is solid.  Brett Myers, at 25, had a good year in 2006, while 22-year-old Cole Hamels made a splash in his debut -- he struck out 145 batters in 132.1 innings.  On the opposite end of the age spectrum, 44-year-old Jamie Moyer went 5-2 for the Phils after a late-season trade.  An offseason trade netted Freddy Garcia, giving the Phils what could be a strong rotation.  Adam Eaton isn't that great, but there are certainly worse guys the Phillies could have at the back of the rotation.  Jon Lieber is still around and could compete for the role as well.  After Gavin Floyd was traded in the offseason, there isn't any younger competition for the fifth spot.  Closer Tom Gordon will be 39 on Opening Day but still had a pretty good year in '06 and can be expected to do the same in 2007.  Ryan Madson, who was an unmitigated disaster as a starter, should be back in the bullpen as well.

The farm system has been drained a bit by trades and graduation to the majors, so Phillies fans probably shouldn't expect any youngsters to make a splash like Hamels did in 2006.  All in all, though, the Phillies have the makings of what could be a very good team in 2007 and should contend for the wild card at worst.

Projected 2007 finish: 2nd, NL East; NL Wild Card

Projected Starting Lineup

Rollins ss
Rowand cf
Howard 1b
Utley 2b
Burrell lf
Helms 3b
Victorino rf
Barajas c

Projected Starting Rotation

Brett Myers
Freddy Garcia
Cole Hamels (L)
Jamie Moyer (L)
Adam Eaton

The season will be a success if... The Phillies make the playoffs -- either by winning the East or the Wild Card -- for the first time since 1993.

Projected 2007 record: 89-73

You know, I think the title says about everything you need to know.  The Rockies traded for Rodrigo Lopez.  Blah.

Normally, I would have about zero excitement about picking up a starter who's coming off a season when he led the majors in losses and had an ERA of 5.90.  Except, oddly enough, Rodrigo isn't all that bad.  Despite being admittedly very bad in 2006, Rodrigo had the best K rate of his career.  In fact, despite being up-and-down during his five seasons in the majors, his peripherals have been very steady.  The difference between the good years and bad years is BABIP -- batting average on balls in play or, put more simply, blind luck.

I'm not that familiar with the concept of BABIP, but I do know that the league average is somewhere around .290, and most pitchers will generally hover around that range.  A pitcher with bad luck, like Rodrigo Lopez had in 2006, will post a BABIP of .334.  A pitcher with great luck -- like, say, Rodrigo Lopez in 2002 -- will post a BABIP of .259.  When his luck was average (2005) he had a BABIP of .294, and he had a decent year: 15-12, 4.90 ERA.  It didn't help that Baltimore is a rather hitter-friendly park and the O's have been known for having a shoddy defense in recent years.  While moving to Coors won't help, the Rockies' defense isn't bad and should help him.

The downside to this trade?  Well, the two players we gave up -- Jim Miller and Jason Burch -- were a pair of AA relievers who few people were high on.  Yes, it was more than the case of Coors Light suggested over at Purple Row, but it's also not a lot to give up for a guy who has been a decent starter in his career and, with a healthy dose of luck, can be good.  No, the downside, other than the obvious risk that Rodrigo will be as horrible as he was in 2006, is that this move pushes one of our young guys to AAA or the bullpen.  If this move winds up pushing Josh Fogg out of the rotation, fine, but if it means Jason Hirsh goes to AAA... I don't like it.  This also increases the likelihood that Taylor Buchholz will be moved to the bullpen or traded.  I don't see how a rotation of Cook, Francis, Lopez, Kim, and Fogg is significantly better than a rotation of Cook, Francis, Kim, Hirsh, and Buchholz or Jimenez.  In fact, either of the last two could do as well as Rodrigo did in '06 (9-18, 5.90 ERA) and wouldn't be the second-highest-paid player on the team while doing it.  Instead, this has all the makings of a "safe" rotation: probably not going to embarrass you, but probably not going to be that great, either.

Thumbs down for screwing over Buchholz.  But, like I said, if Rodrigo's as good as he was in 2004, this could work out well.

The dead of the offseason, while a fun time to look ahead to the coming season, is also a good time to: catch up on sleep, watch college basketball, watch the NFL playoffs, deal with the first week of the second semester of law school.  That's why Coors Effect hasn't had one of its "daily previews" for the last eight days.  Real life (and, on occasion, other sports) gets in the way of thinking about baseball sometimes.  Anyways, even with that eight-day layoff, the preview series should still be done on February 6.  That leaves nine days before pitchers and catchers report (for the Rockies, anyway.)

This being a Rockies blog, I'll also be posting whatever news comes out of Rockies camp, including trades -- one of which will follow this post later tonight.  If you're wondering, the general order of the previews will be alternating AL and NL teams, starting with the two East divisions, followed by the remaining teams from the two Central divisions, and finally the West.  Since there are two more NL teams than AL, we'll have two NL teams at the end: the Cardinals (out of order, sure, but I follow the Cardinals when I'm not, well, following the Rockies) and our Rockies last.

That brings us to tonight's preview of our recent trade partners, the Baltimore Orioles.  It must be frustrating to be an O's fan.  Since winning the AL East in 1997, Baltimore hasn't had a winning season, and has only finished better than fourth once (2004.)  The franchise is in pretty awful shape.  The farm hasn't produced much talent, and the free agents the team has signed, aside from Miguel Tejada, have mostly been mediocre.  That, coupled with playing in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox, means the Orioles are losers.  And there's less hope here than even in Tampa Bay, where a crop of youngsters provides hope for the future.

Still, this Orioles team doesn't have the look of some O's clubs of recent vintage, which tended to be stocked with over-the-hill veterans who used to be good, but were well past their prime.  There's really only one player on the offense who fits that description, 35-year-old Kevin Millar.  The rest of the offense, while not particularly old, isn't particularly good, either.  Of course, Tejada is good, and Nick Markakis, who's just 23, has a ton of potential.  O's fans are still waiting on Corey Patterson to live up to his, after the Cubs got sick of waiting for that.  Most likely, Jay Gibbons or Jay Payton will man left field; neither is a bad option, but neither is going to be great, either.

Outside of Tejada, the infield is okay; Melvin Mora has been a pretty good hitter, as has Brian Roberts.  Kevin Millar isn't the player he used to be, and Ramon Hernandez is serviceable behind the plate, but he's nothing special.  For a team that plays in a pretty hitter-friendly park, it's saying a lot that the team's home run leader last season (Tejada) had just 24 homers.  That pretty well sums up the O's offense: decent, but nothing special, and certainly not enough to keep up with the Yankees and Red Sox (or even the Blue Jays.)

The pitching, once again, is decent, but not spectacular.  Erik Bedard is a good young starter, and Daniel Cabrera can be completely overpowering -- but often he can't find the plate at all.  Kris Benson, of course, is a guy who's never lived up to his potential, but he's okay as a #3/#4 starter, as is Jaret Wright.  That leaves either Adam Loewen or Hayden Penn -- both just 22 -- to fill the last slot in the rotation.  Chris Ray had a solid year in his debut as the O's closer.

The pitching will be hit-or-miss.  Good seasons from Bedard, Cabrera, and one of the young guys could mean the O's will be better than expected; on the other hand, you basically know what you're getting with Benson and Wright.  Likewise, you know what you're getting with virtually everybody on the offense except Markakis.

The farm system, other than the aforementioned guys, is average as well.  There are a couple of potential impact guys, and some decent pitching depth, but not a lot of potential impact hitters -- which is what this team needs.  The O's should be good enough to avoid the cellar as Tampa Bay breaks in its young talent, but don't expect a lot more from this team.

Projected Starting Lineup

Roberts 2b
Mora 3b
Tejada ss
Millar 1b
Patterson cf
Huff dh
Markakis rf
Payton lf
Hernandez c

Projected Starting Rotation

Erik Bedard (L)
Daniel Cabrera
Kris Benson
Jaret Wright
Adam Loewen (L)

Projected 2007 finish: 4th, AL East

The season will be a success if... The Orioles are at least respectable.  Without a lot of help on the way, at least not in the high minors, the O's aren't even in a great position to get younger.  It would help if one of the veteran starters -- say, Kris Benson -- were traded to make a spot in the rotation for Penn, and that could happen if the O's are out of contention.

Projected 2007 record: 73-89

Considering the team he had, the fact that Joe Girardi was able to go 78-84 in his first season in south Florida was amazing.  Yet, disagreements with owner Jeffrey Loria led to Girardi being fired and replaced by Fredi Gonzalez.

Back in 1998, the first time the Marlins held a "fire sale" and dismantled the team, the team suffered to the worst record in baseball the following season.  In 2006, however, the Marlins threatened to make a playoff push late in the season and finished a respectable fourth place in the NL East.  Three more wins, and the Fish would have had a .500 record for the season.  Amazing for a team that many people thought was going to threaten the major league record for losses in a season.

The key to this team last year was that even though the players were young, and many had never played in the majors before, they were also talented.  If the 2005 Rockies were the test version, the 2006 Marlins were taken to the extreme: scrapping aging veterans for young, talented players from other organizations, to the point that every Marlins regular last season was under 30.  With the team remaining quiet in the free agent market, that will be the case again this season.

Entering his fourth season in the majors, and at just 23 years of age, Miguel Cabrera is a veteran by Marlins standards, and he's the key to the offense.  After moving to the outfield when he came up, Cabrera moved back to third base in 2006 and quietly had an excellent season, batting .339 (second in the National League) and hitting 26 homers to go with 114 RBI.  He led the team in batting average and RBI -- but not homers, as surprising Rule 5 second baseman Dan Uggla knocked 27.  NL Rookie of the Year Hanley Ramirez (.292-17-59) and first baseman Mike Jacobs (.262-20-77) complete what, surprisingly, is one of the best (and youngest) infields in the National League.

Left fielder Josh Willingham, at 27, finally got his chance in the bigs last season and responded by hitting 26 homers.  In right, Jeremy Hermida (22) was a bit of a disappointment, missing almost half the season due to injury and hitting just .251 with five homers, but he also has a ton of talent.  Center field could be a sore spot, however.  Right now, Alfredo Amezaga is penciled in as the starter, which tells you about all you need to know.  Reggie Abercrombie, Cody Ross, and Eric Reed will also be in the mix in center.

Dontrelle Willis seems to excel in odd-numbered years -- he came up in 2003 and went 14-6, then went 22-10 with a 2.63 ERA in 2005 -- so 2007 should be a good year for the D-Train.  As with the hitters, youth is the story here.  The Marlins will go with a trio of 23-year-olds -- big righty Josh Johnson, lefty Scott Olsen, and Anibal Sanchez, who tossed a no-hitter in September -- in their rotation, as well as another youngster, perhaps Ricky Nolasco, who started 22 games in 2006, in their rotation.  The bullpen is unproven but could be a strength.

The biggest question is, are the youngsters really as good as they showed in 2006?  Four of the five starting pitchers, and five everyday players, were rookies in 2006, and it seemed that just about every one of them was good.  If everybody on the team collectively has a sophomore slump, the Marlins will be very, very bad.  On the other hand, with a good season from Willis and continued improvement from the youngsters, the Marlins could be quite good.  My best guess is that they'll finish somewhere in the middle.

Projected 2007 Starting Lineup

Ramirez ss
Uggla 2b
Cabrera 3b
Willingham lf
Jacobs 1b
Hermida rf
Amezaga cf
Olivo c

Projected 2007 Starting Rotation

Dontrelle Willis (L)
Josh Johnson
Scott Olsen (L)
Anibal Sanchez
Ricky Nolasco

Projected Finish: 4th, NL East

The season will be a success if... the team improves from 2006.  If the entire team collectively slumps, this will be a long season.  The youngsters need to show improvement from year one to year two.  How will Joe Girardi's departure affect the team?

Projected Record: 79-83

Okay, so the Hot Stove season isn't quite over.  Today, the Yankees shipped out Randy Johnson to the Diamondbacks for Luis Vizcaino and a couple of yet-to-be-named minor leaguers.

This has been a weird offseason for Yankees fans.  The Yankees, apparently noticing that their model of signing the best free agents available and neglecting the farm system hasn't produced a World Championship since 2000, have decided to go young.  Of course, it's the Yankees, so don't expect a complete overhaul like those seen with the 2005 Rockies or 2006 Marlins -- George Steinbrenner has enough trouble dealing with 95-win seasons, much less the 67-win season that the Rockies went through in 2005.  But did you notice that two of the Yankees' likely Opening Day starters -- Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera -- aren't even 25 yet?  Or that two guys who will be just 27 on Opening Day (Kei Igawa and Chien-Ming Wang) will grace the Yankees' starting rotation?  Or that three of the above four were produced by the Yankees farm system?  Something strange is going on in the Bronx.

Most likely, the Boss has noticed the recent success of clubs that have built from within (and the fact that six years have gone by since the Yanks last won it all.)  He's also noticed that, thanks to an increasing number of teams developing farm systems and locking up their stars to long-term contracts before they hit the free agent market, the free agent pool is weaker than ever.  That means that the Yankees are trying to do what everybody else is doing: build their club from within through smart drafting and smart trades.  Gary Sheffield, who missed two thirds of last season, and Johnson, who's 43 years old and never seemed to fit in in New York, are out.  A bunch of guys you probably never heard of, but who are much more likely to play a role on the next Yankees World Series team, are in.

The Yanks' farm system isn't exactly loaded, but it's not bad.  Eight of BA's Top 10 Yankees prospects are pitchers, and that was before the Yanks picked up Humberto Sanchez, a fireballing righty, from Detroit in the Sheffield trade.

Of course, the Yankees still have a talented big league club.  Is it good enough to win a World Series?  Possibly.  Wang and Igawa will team with Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, and a fifth starter (Carl Pavano?) to form what could be a very strong rotation.  And the everyday lineup is still one of, if not the most dangerous in the bigs.  The lineup is aging a bit, and while the farm system has plenty of pitching help on the way there aren't a lot of premium position prospects on the farm other than 18-year-old outfielder Jose Tabata, who's still in A-ball.

The Yankees should still be the favorites to win the AL East, with the Blue Jays mostly running in place and the Orioles being a running joke.

Predicted finish: 1st, AL East

The season will be a success if... The Yankees win the World Series.  The Boss wouldn't have it any other way.

Projected 2007 record: 97-65

I'm going in no particular order here.  So today's preview, #2 in Coors Effect's 30-part series, will be the Chicago Cubs.

It's been since 1908 that the Cubs have won the World Series -- and 1944 since they've even made it there.  The Cubs made it to the NLCS in 2003, Dusty Baker's first season in Chicago, but didn't make it back to the playoffs in the past three years and Baker was fired after 2006, a season in which the Cubs went 66-96, finishing in last place in the NL Central.

The Cubs have been the exception to the rule that large-market teams win in baseball.  They play in Chicago, the third-largest city in the United States, and they sell out virtually every game at old Wrigley Field despite having to share the market with the White Sox across town.  Even in an awful 2006 season the Cubs averaged 38,558 fans per game -- better than all but the Dodgers, Cardinals (who had a new ballpark), Mets, and Giants in the National League.  Yet the Cubs have finished dead last in the NL Central five times since the advent of the wild card era (counting strike-shortened 1994.)

The Cubs' farm system is an example of what can go wrong with relying on the farm system.  There's been plenty of talent down on the farm, but many of their top pitchers, including Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, have had numerous injury problems over the years.  The lack of success with the farm system has frustrated Cubs fans, and in response they've decided to go the opposite route for 2007: signing a bunch of big-name free agents to contracts.  Alfonso Soriano signed for $136 million over 8 years.  The Cubs also brought in pitchers Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis.  The Marquis signing, at $21 million over three years, is especially mind-boggling since Marquis posted a 6.02 ERA for the Cardinals in 2006.  There are probably guys the Cubs have at AAA who could come in and do that.

None of those free agents, though, will help the team as much in 2007 as having a healthy Derrek Lee will.  D-Lee was healthy in 2005 and posted MVP-type numbers: .335, 46 homers, 107 RBI.  In 2006, he missed two thirds of the season and hit just .286 with 8 homers and 30 RBI.  If Lee is healthy, the heart of the Cubs' order, with him, Soriano (.277, 46 homers, 95 RBI playing in pitcher-friendly RFK Stadium) and Aramis Ramirez (.291, 38 homers, 119 RBI) will be as dangerous as any in baseball.  Throw in Jacque Jones (.285, 27 homers, 81 RBI), and the Cubs lineup should thrive if Lee plays a full season.  The rest of the lineup isn't bad: young Matt Murton is a good hitter for average; Mark DeRosa is a decent hitter at second; and Michael Barrett is a good hitter as catchers go.  The Cubs should be able to carry Ronny Cedeno, who hit just .245 in his first full season in the bigs.  Cesar Izturis, Ryan Theriot, and Buck Coats should provide some depth, and top prospect Felix Pie (.283/.341/.451 at AAA Iowa), who's just 21, could force his way into the mix with a good spring.  The Cubs lineup could be very good.

The pitching, though, is a different story.  Staff ace Carlos Zambrano is as good as any starter in the game, but after him the rotation is filled with mediocre veterans (Lilly, Marquis), injury question marks (Prior and Wood), and unproven youngsters (Sean Marshall, Rich Hill, Carlos Marmol.)  A healthy season from Prior or Wood will go a long way toward making the team better, but that may be asking a lot.  Of the youngsters, Hill, who went 6-7 with a 4.17 ERA in 17 games in 2006, is probably the best bet.  Marshall, who surprised everybody by making the rotation out of spring training, went 6-9 with a 5.59 ERA and may need more time in the minors, but he's only 24.  Marmol, also 24, went 5-7 with a 6.08 ERA and probably will start the season at AAA.  The rotation will likely be boom or bust: either the Cubs get production out of the youngsters (or a healthy Prior/Wood) and do well, or everybody gets hurt, the youngsters can't do it, and Marquis is as bad as he was in 2006.

Cubs Projected Opening Day Lineup

Soriano cf
DeRosa 2b
Lee 1b
Ramirez 3b
Jones rf
Barrett c
Murton lf
Cedeno ss

Projected Starting Rotation

Carlos Zambrano
Mark Prior
Ted Lilly (L)
Jason Marquis
Rich Hill (L)

Projected Finish: 3rd, NL Central

The season will be a success if... The Cubs have a winning record.  There's enough talent on this team to win the division, but there are enough question marks that the Cubs could also flame out and finish in the cellar again.  A healthy and productive season from Derrek Lee (and the fact that the Pirates are still bad) should be enough to ensure that the team doesn't finish last again, but the pitching staff is such a big question mark that it's difficult to expect better than a third-place finish.

Projected 2007 record: 80-82

For those of you keeping score at home, 89 days until Opening Day.  Is it too early to talk about baseball?  Never!  If ESPN can talk about football in June, in the middle of baseball season, I can sure as heck talk baseball in January, in the middle of college football's bowl season and the NFL playoffs.  Does anyone even care about college bowls other than the National Championship and the one their school is playing in?  No.  Does anyone care about baseball in January?  You're looking at him.

So, today we begin a rundown of all 30 MLB teams, mostly out of sheer boredom, and also because the best free agent remaining on the market is 44-year-old Roger Clemens, with the second-best, apparently, being Jeff Weaver, who pitched well in the World Series for the Cardinals and made everybody forget how awful he was in the first half of the 2006 season for the Angels (I mean, they dumped him for Terry Freaking Evans!)  Several members of the 2004 Colorado Rockies are also still available, including Preston Wilson, Jamey Wright, Todd Greene, Jeromy Burnitz, and Shawn Estes.  And you wonder why Dan O'Dowd blew the team up.

Where to begin?  I talk Rockies all the time, so we'll save them for last.  Instead, we'll go with, oh, (throwing darts at a wall) the Kansas City Royals.

A typical Royals outfield adventure.

Since somehow mustering 83 wins in 2003, Royals fans have endured three consecutive 100-loss seasons.  In fact, they've lost 100 or more games four of the last five seasons, and lost 97 games in both 2002 and 2000.  Kauffman Stadium would be one of the best (and least expensive) places to enjoy a game in America if not for the truly awful brand of baseball the Royals have been playing since 1994.

Shots at the Royals aside, the Royals did notice the success the Cardinals had with the strategy of "Sign All the Guys the Rockies Didn't Want" and have followed suit, with Scott Elarton and Zach Day gracing the roster along with Ryan Shealy, who the Rockies only didn't want because he plays the same position as Todd Helton.  The Royals may have also pulled off the single dumbest signing of this offseason by paying Gil Meche and his career 4.65 ERA $55 million.

Of course, as Baseball Think Factory pointed out, signing Meche means the Royals won't be able to sign a bunch of mediocre guys to block their top prospects.  And it also means that the Royals are actually trying these days, rather than pocketing the luxury tax money that they pick up from rich teams like the Yankees and blaming market inequities (rather than, you know, bonehead decisions and refusing to spend money or develop an adequate farm system) for their failures.

There are some impact players down on the farm, which is what having so many poor seasons and high draft picks will do for you, but not a lot of depth.  In other words, if Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, and Luke Hochevar don't pan out, things aren't going to be pretty for the Royals in the next few years.

But that's not for discussion for 2007, though any of those three could be with the team at some point during the season.  For 2007, Meche is actually the Royals' #1 starter, which tells you a lot about how bad things have gotten for the Royals.  He'll likely be followed in the rotation by Odalis Perez, who's better than the 6.20 ERA he posted in 2006.  After that... things get ugly (unless, of course, you're a hitter on the opposing team.)  According to Royals Review they're looking at Luke Hudson, Jorge de la Rosa, and Zack Greinke as their last three starters -- with Scott Elarton, Brian Bannister, and Zach Day in spring training competition for spots in the rotation.  Considering what Day did in Colorado last April, the fact that he could have a spot on a major league roster is amazing.  What we know about Elarton is that he's tall and has some pretty weak stuff; the Rockies brought him in because he had minor success in Houston and played his high school ball in Lamar, Colorado and therefore should have success pitching at altitude.  We now know better than that.  Of course, this is better than last season, when the Royals had Elarton as their #1 starter instead of merely a guy competing for a rotation spot.  The bullpen has a bunch of no-name guys, including an interesting signing in John Bale, and of course Octavio Dotel, last seen miserably failing as the closer in Houston and then Oakland.  The bullpen could be good if Dotel rediscovers the magic he showed in Houston before they made him the closer and if some of the other guys step up.  On the other hand, I don't see the rotation turning out well.

The offense, if you want to call it that, should be better as only Reggie Sanders, Emil Brown, and Mark Grudzielanek have reached age 30.  It wouldn't be a stretch to suggest that Ryan Shealy, who should be manning first for the Royals on a regular basis, could put up better numbers than Todd Helton does in Colorado.  Angel Berroa has mostly shown that his Rookie of the Year season in 2003 was a fluke, while 25-year-old Mark Teahen is making sure the Royals don't have to rush Gordon to the majors.  Of course, with Sanders closing in on 40 and Emil Brown only being league-average in left field, and Billy Butler looking mostly like a DH in the field, there should be somewhere for Gordon to play if and when he's ready.  Grudz still has it at 36, and the Royals don't have an obvious replacement on the horizon since they got tired of waiting on Donnie Murphy.  David DeJesus is a potential star in center field, while catcher John Buck has struggled enough at the plate that the Royals felt it necessary to sign Jason LaRue.  And of course there's longtime Royal Mike Sweeney, pushed to a permanent DH role by injuries and the acquisition of Shealy.

Translation: It's going to be another long year for the Royals, and there should be plenty of opportunities for the Royals' young prospects to get some playing time.  Butler and Gordon should be up around midseason, and Justin Huber should get some PT as well.  Hochevar, who's logged just 15.1 innings at A-ball, is obviously more questionable, but the Royals have showed no qualms about rushing prospects to the bigs in the past.

Royals Projected Opening Day Lineup

DeJesus cf
Grudzielanek 2b
Teahan 3b
Brown lf
Sanders rf
Shealy 1b
Sweeney dh
Buck c
Berroa ss

Projected Starting Rotation

Gil Meche
Odalis Perez (L)
Luke Hudson
Jorge de la Rosa (L)
Zack Greinke

Projected Finish: 5th, AL Central

The season will be a success if: The Royals avoid the cellar for the first time since 2003.  Seriously, it's going to take a while for the Royals to turn things around and this season should be about getting the young guys some meaningful, non-September playing time, not embarrassing themselves, and perhaps not being out of the playoff race by the end of April.  There is some talent down on the farm, including some impact talents that are very close to being ready for the majors, though the system doesn't have the depth of the Rockies' or the impact talents like the Devil Rays'.  But it would be nice for the club to show some progress this season.  The AL Central has suddenly become one of the toughest divisions in baseball, and that can't help the Royals in their quest for respectability.

Projected 2007 Record: 66-96

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